If you are a Republican in a competitive congressional race this year, whether you invite President Trump to campaign for you may depend on whether you are running for House or Senate.
Republicans could easily lose the House if Democrats run the table in suburban districts where “The Resistance” is strong and the affinity of college-educated GOP-leaning voters for their party’s new populist branding is weak. Republicans are defending a 23-seat majority in the House; there are as many GOP-held districts that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Yet the Republicans’ position is much stronger in the Senate, where ten Democrats are running for re-election in states Trump carried and several of these red-state lawmakers are highly vulnerable. That gives Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., some insurance if the Democrats manage to pick off one or two of his 51 senators and possibly an opportunity to expand that narrow majority.
It’s as if the midterm elections are happening in two different worlds.
Complicating matters further, there is also a disconnect between how Trump plays in the battle for each chamber. He is an asset for the Republican challengers running against red state Democratic senators but a liability for GOP incumbents and candidates for open seats in many of the suburban districts that will decide the House majority. That creates a messaging dilemma for Republicans trying to help candidates with campaigning in vastly different political environments.
“Messaging around Trump is challenging because he generally dominates media coverage,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant. “Candidates may find themselves running in Trump’s shadow, even if they’re desperately trying to forge an independent identity. How that impacts a candidate’s perceived messaging will have a lot to do with Trump’s support in their state or district.”
The path to the Senate majority runs through Heartland states Trump not only won in 2016 but where he also remains popular now. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is trying to run for re-election in a state that went for Trump by 42 points and still gives him a job approval rating in excess of 60 percent.
Manchin has tried to position himself as independent and relatively friendly to Trump. FiveThirtyEight estimates the senator and former governor votes with Trump 61.1 percent of the time. But that did not include the two biggest-ticket items, Obamacare repeal and tax reform, angering the president.
Since Trump began bashing Manchin, the Democrat’s poll numbers have slipped. Manchin’s approval ratings have declined sharply from 52-36 at the end of 2017 to 43-44 now. A Republican firm found him trailing new GOP senatorial nominee Patrick Morrisey by 2 points and stuck below the 50 percent threshold that is usually considered a good sign for incumbents.
“I don’t think President Trump is as toxic as the media likes to portray him,” said Republican strategist Lisa Boothe. “You are going to see Republicans embrace him in the competitive Senate races in states the president won by double digits or even in parts of Pennsylvania or Ohio to turn out the Trump coalition.”
“Democrats in vulnerable red states like Sen. [Jon] Tester are already touting their ability to work with the president,” she added. “It was his first TV ad.”
Indeed, the Montana Democrat points to 13 of his bills Trump signed into law. “Washington’s a mess, but that’s not stopping me from getting bills to help Montana signed into law by President Trump,” Tester says in the 30-second ad.
Tester didn’t initially try to cozy up to Trump as much as Manchin did. He was the only red state Democrat to vote against reopening the federal government without the deal on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals liberals were demanding. He more recently voted against confirming Mike Pompeo for secretary of state.
But it was Tester’s role in publicizing disputed allegations against since-withdrawn Veterans Affairs secretary nominee Ronny Jackson that made him a target. Trump tweeted Tester should resign and a supportive super PAC called the Democrat “disgraceful.”
“In Montana, we value integrity and support our president,” said the America First Action ad. “But Jon Tester spread false information about a respected Navy admiral, helping D.C. Democrats derail President Trump’s Veterans Affairs nominee.”
Trump has already been to Indiana to campaign for newly minted GOP nominee Mike Braun against the state’s Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. “This November, Indiana will face an important choice,” he told the crowd. “You can send a really incredible swamp person back to the Senate, like Joe Donnelly. Or you can send Republicans like Mike Braun to drain the swamp.”
By contrast, Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., or the GOP candidate to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., would be hurt by such a direct intervention by the president or his allies and probably would not request it.
With the Democrats’ generic ballot lead shrinking, some think things are even looking up for House Republicans.
“Midterm elections are usually a referendum on presidential leadership,” said Republican strategist John Feehrey. “The question remains: Is that good or bad for Republicans in this election?”
Anti-Trump messages clearly resonate with the highly energized Democratic base. Republicans hope the reach of such sentiment is becoming more limited.
“President Trump was elected with historically bad popularity ratings. Those ratings have improved dramatically, depending on which poll you look at,” Feehery continued. “The economy is strong. Peace seems to be breaking out. The Democrats are moving far to the Left. All of these factors seem to point to less of a blue wave than has been predicted by most Washington pundits.”
Still, the House remains clearly in play, and Trump is nowhere nearly as popular in suburbia as in West Virginia or Montana. Centrist Republicans — and even committee chairs — have been heading for the exits. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J., called it quits while still wielding the gavel at the House Appropriations Committee
“It’s tough because there is so much time between now and November,” said Boothe, a Fox News contributor. “Yes, the environment for Republicans is improving and there are reasons to be optimistic but that could also change.”
A challenge will be to keep the freewheeling Trump hammering away at Manchin, Tester, Donnelly, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, the likely Democratic nominee for the seat being vacated by Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., without providing bulletin board material for competitive Democratic House candidates.
“Republicans will lose a few seats in the House but gain a few in the Senate,” Feehery predicted. “That’s my story and I am sticking to it.”
