Republican Sen. Marco Rubio leads Democratic Rep. Val Demings by a healthy 7 percentage points in a fresh poll of the Florida Senate race, with President Joe Biden’s approval ratings in the state cratering at 40%.
The nonpartisan Maxon Dixon survey, conducted Feb. 7-10 and released Wednesday, showed Rubio ahead of Demings 49% to 42% among registered voters. Nine percent were undecided. Rubio’s advantage in the race is built on a 10-point lead with crucial independent voters — and Biden’s political struggles. Florida is a perennial swing state but has tilted toward the Republicans since former President Donald Trump won there in 2016.
“Party registered voters appear to be dug in along partisan lines and recent elections suggest that pattern is likely to hold” in 2022, the memo from Maxon Dixon reads. “The key for Demings to pull off an upset will be the ability to attract more unaffiliated voters.”
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Rubio, 50, hailing from the Miami area and running for his third term in the Senate, is considered a potential 2024 presidential candidate, having sought the White House six years ago. Demings, 64, was first elected to represent an Orlando-area House district in 2016 and was the preferred candidate to challenge Rubio among Democratic leaders.
The two candidates entered the election year with comparable war chests — Rubio had stockpiled $10.6 million and Demings had banked $8.2 million.
But Rubio’s putative Democratic challenger is likely to have trouble catching the incumbent as long as Biden’s job approval ratings are in the doldrums.
The president’s disapproval in the Mason Dixon poll was 55% — climbing to 59% among both men and all voters 50 years of age and older and 61% among independents.
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For Demings, the survey offered just a few rays of light: She led Rubio with black voters 82% to 7%, she topped the senator with women 48% to 41%, and she was ahead of him in the region of southeast Florida 53% to 40%. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
