Pompeo on the verge of major border deal with Mexico

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is on the cusp of a major diplomatic success with Mexico on how to handle the border caravan crisis, but he still has to stick the landing with the new Mexican government once it’s sworn in on Saturday.

Pompeo is pushing the new government to hold to a handshake agreement to migrants in Mexico while their claims for asylum in the U.S. are considered. The U.S. plans to meet with top Mexican officials on Monday, but it’s not clear yet Mexico will stick to the deal.

“The incoming foreign minister has agreed to having the processing center done on the Mexican side of the border; whether that holds after Saturday is not clear to me,” a source familiar with the State Department’s negotiating efforts told the Washington Examiner. “There is no signed piece of paper. It’s verbal.”

[Related: Mexico deporting 98 ‘foreigners’ involved in Sunday’s border clash]

Pompeo has been negotiating with both the outgoing Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray and his expected successor, Marcelo Ebrard, who is expected to be confirmed as Mexico’s top diplomat when President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office on Dec. 1. That delay creates some ambiguity about whether the deal will be finalized or not, as Ebrard has denied that an agreement is in place, although the pair will discuss it this weekend after the G-20 Summit in Argentina.

The expected agreement would have the Central American border caravan members “wait inside of Mexico while their applications are being processed” in the United States. Pompeo remains confident, while not ignoring the potential uncertainty. “He feels good about it,” the source said. “He thinks there’s a deal.”

The border caravan crisis comes at a delicate time for U.S.-Mexico relations, as Lopez Obrador was elected on a platform built in part around standing up to President Trump’s administration.

“I think it is a huge testament to the level of cooperation between the state department and between AMLO’s incoming government,” the Heritage Foundation’s Ana Quintana, told the Washington Examiner, referring to Lopez Obrador by his commonly-known initials. “For them to have gotten Mexico’s hard core — he’s a leftist populist, and they got this guy to agree to that? That’s pretty significant.”

Quintana, a senior policy analyst for Latin America and the Western Hemisphere, thinks the high-profile clashes over the weekend between caravan members and U.S. border security might complicate the effort by turning polarizing Mexican public opinion against the Trump administration and in favor of the migrants, particularly in southern Mexico where the price of the border caravans is not felt so steeply.

“If [Lopez Obrador] announces the deal, he could have a significant backlash,” Quintana said. “I think he’s holding back from making these huge announcements that could break his base or kind of could cause tension amongst his base because the people who dislike him greatly dislike him.”

But if the deal falls through next weekend, Lopez Obrador’s team should brace for the Trump administration’s disappointment. “If the deal is broken, I think there will be a very negative reaction on this end,” the source familiar with the State Department’s efforts told the Washington Examiner. “Sort of a disproportionate response, because they think they’ve gotten a deal.”

With that in mind, Trump’s threats to close the entire southern border if the border caravan issue isn’t resolve could function as a negotiating tactic with the incoming Mexican government.

“Threatening the closure of a multibillion border crossing?” the source surmised. “That would be unbelievably disproportionate.”

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