Confident talk in Washington that swaggering Republicans will fatten their majority in the Senate to a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the fall elections is shifting to nail-biting whispers the Democrats could take charge and install Sen. Chuck Schumer as leader.
Already fretting odds that the House will turn Democratic and that potential Speaker Nancy Pelosi will open impeachment proceedings against President Trump, a path to a Democratic Senate is beginning to emerge based on historical statistics and the anti-Trump sentiment in some areas of the country.
Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Larry Sabato Crystal Ball, outlined the long-shot route Thursday and said that while GOP control remains the likely outcome, it is not a lock.
“While Republicans are favored to retain control of the chamber, and possibly gain seats in the process, Democrats do have a chance of winning a slim majority this November,” he wrote in a detailed historical analysis.
“To win 51 or 52 seats, Democrats would have to hold most or all of those 10 seats in Trump-won states while also adding one or two other seats in states the president carried — Arizona and Tennessee — while also winning the lone Clinton-won state the GOP is defending this cycle — Nevada. Although this is not a likely outcome, the fact we can credibly discuss it as a possible result is evidence that the historical trend of non-presidential party incumbents winning most midterm races may prove to be the stronger force once again in 2018,” he added.
He noted that ticket-splitting is likely to make a comeback in the elections.
“This is good news for Democrats because they are defending one of the largest number of seats on record for any party in a midterm. Conversely, the GOP has few vulnerable seats to defend but may find itself limited by the electoral environment as the presidential party,” he said.
