Democrats are poised to loosen the Republican stranglehold on governors’ mansions across the country on Election Day Tuesday, with voter enthusiasm unusually high for a nonpresidential cycle. But it will be a handful of “toss up” races that could determine whether the GOP maintains control of the bulk of governorships heading into the 2020 presidential election and beyond.
Prognosticators, who look at the wide scope of polling, foresee a good night for Democrats. They predict Democrats will make gains for a more balanced distribution of power, as Republicans are currently governors in 33 out of 50 states.
Of the 36 states with gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, 26 are headed by Republicans, whereas nine have Democrats in charge. Alaska’s governor, Bill Walker, is an independent.
In their Monday evening forecast, FiveThirtyEight said Democrats were likely to make a net gain of eight governorships on top of the 16 they already have, giving them governors in 24 states after the 2018 midterm cycle.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics projects Democrats will pick up two governors’ mansions, leaving 12 contests in “toss up” status. But, according to their “no toss ups” map, Democrats could make a net gain of eight, leaving them in control of 24 states.
Democratic candidates campaigning in Illinois, Michigan, and New Mexico are positioned for wins in three of the 26 Republican strongholds, while those politicking for power in the state capitols of Florida, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin are in neck-and-neck races, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Democrats are also competitive in the traditionally red enclaves of Georgia, Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. Republicans are making a play for Alaska, Connecticut, and Oregon.
Cook, however, declined to estimate on how many states it expects either party to gain or lose. “These primaries make it difficult to come up with a range of potential gains or losses for each party. Given the number of GOP-held seats up, it is not unreasonable to expect Democrats to pick up seats. The question now is how many,” Cook said in its Governor Ratings Summary.
Although much of the national discussion has been focused on whether Democrats seize one or both chambers of Congress, the party make-up of state executives is certain to be a critical bellwether ahead of President Trump’s re-election bid in two years.
“It’s really nice to have senators and members of Congress … but the reality is the day-to-day debate, discussion and political operation is often controlled by a governor,” Tom Vilsack, a former Democratic governor of Iowa, told US News. “To the extent you have a governor in charge, your party is going to see a better grassroots ground game. A governor keeps the party healthy, well-financed. That’s obviously going to bode well for 2020.”
Republicans have additionally wielded governorships and state legislature majorities to gerrymander state- and federal-level voting districts, creating an electoral advantage in between census years when redistricting normally takes place. A census is conducted every decade, with the next one due in 2020.
“If Democrats win one statewide race in what looks like it could be a wave year, they can assure themselves at least of veto power,” David Daley, a gerrymandering expert, told Vox. A gubernatorial veto could either be used as leverage to broker a bipartisan compromise on a map, or result in a court having to rule on its legality.
Among the most-watched gubernatorial campaigns are those of the Democratic candidates in Florida and Georgia, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams. Gillum and Abrams have received national attention for the historic nature of their match-ups: Both are trying to become their states’ first African-American governor. Abrams could also be the country’s inaugural black woman elected into a governorship.
Another contest generating lots of buzz is in Wisconsin. Two-term Republican Gov. Scott Walker, once a presidential contender, is in the fight of his political career against Democratic challenger Tony Evers, the state’s superintendent of public instruction.
