Tammy Baldwin could be more vulnerable than people realized

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Newly minted GOP Senate nominee Leah Vukmir is within striking distance of incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.

A new Marquette University Law survey has the two candidates polling within the margin or error. “Among likely voters in the race for the Wisconsin U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in November, 49 percent support the incumbent, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and 47 percent support Republican Leah Vukmir, while 3 percent say they lack a preference or do not lean toward a candidate,” the pollsters reported on Wednesday. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Note also the small share of voters without a preference or lean, meaning that, as often seems to happen with Wisconsin elections, the candidates will be fighting over a very small piece of the electoral pie going forward.

Voters were surveyed Aug. 15-19, the days immediately following Vukmir’s hard-fought Aug. 14 primary win.

This is big news for the GOP. With 10 Democratic incumbents defending their seats in states that President Trump won, Baldwin has generally been considered one of the safer members. Plenty of cash has already been spent against the first-term Wisconsin Democrat, but incumbents in states like Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota have gotten much more attention. Trump won Wisconsin by less than one percentage point in 2016, and still has a 51 to 45 disapproval-to-approval rating there, according to Wednesday’s MU poll. Baldwin held a much more comfortable 49 to 40 advantage over Vukmir in a June MU poll.

Now, with less than three months before Election Day, Baldwin may be more vulnerable than people realized.

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