The Democrats should win the House majority with room to spare in Tuesday’s elections, but the prognosticator at the University of Virginia is warning that the party could fall flat and short of the needed 23 seat pickup.
The school’s Larry J. Sabato Crystal Ball said Thursday that liberals should add 29 seats, but, “not so many more that one could rule out the Democrats sputtering out short of the majority.”
And the weekly political report also suggested in another report that President Trump and the GOP could beat back history and keep the House.
“Midterms often feature a decline for the presidential party after a surge in the House in the presidential year. But Republicans enjoyed no surge in 2016, which could limit their decline this year,” said the second report.
“A model based on history and the dynamics of surge and decline suggests Republicans should lose House seats, but they remain well-positioned to hold the House majority. However, certain factors not included in the model, like a new House map in Pennsylvania and a high number of Republican retirements, could cause the model to understate GOP exposure in the House,” it added.
The Crystal Ball also said that the GOP appears to be ahead in two races run by House members under indictment, Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Chris Collins of New York.
Overall, though, the guru is predicting a good night for House Democrats.
The report, authored by Kyle Kondik, managing editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said:
Right now, we have 212 House seats at least leaning to the Democrats, 202 at least leaning to the Republicans, and 21 Toss-ups. While we’re still gathering information about the Toss-ups, we do have a sense as to where we’re leaning in the races. As of this moment, we’d probably pick the Democrats in 12 of the Toss-ups and Republicans in nine of them. That would amount to a Democratic House gain of 29 seats. So let’s say, for now, we’re thinking an overall Democratic gain of somewhere around 30 seats, give or take. That’s more than the 23 net seats the Democrats need, but not so many more that one could rule out the Democrats sputtering out short of the majority.
